True North — Bay City

Big week coming — Saturday is the focal point. The model expects $20,959 in sales against a 12-week baseline of $17,992, with Saturday alone accounting for ~77% of that lift. Two drivers stack on Saturday: 78°F sunny + patio lift and UM home football vs Ohio State (3:30pm kickoff). Net staffing change for the week: +19 hours / +$281 in wages. Predicted P&L upside: +$73. The other days are quietly profitable except Monday lunch — same pressure window you've seen for three weeks now. Cut on Monday, add everywhere else. Tuesday is flagged separately: the model's seeing a lift it can't explain; verify before staffing to it.

• Fri May 1·Bay City First Fridays art walk
• Sat May 2·78°F sunny + patio lift

  Saturday's the one to schedule for. Forecast is 78°F sunny and we'd expect a +35% patio lift on similar weather — the last three matching Saturdays ran in the same range. Stacked on top: UM home football vs Ohio State (3:30pm kickoff). Last three home games averaged ~$6,200 bar revenue against a normal Saturday $4,100. Two drivers, same day. Recommended adds: two servers 11am–3pm, six bar hours 4pm to close. That's roughly $232 in additional wages against an expected $1,500+ in patio revenue and $2,100+ in bar revenue. If kickoff slides earlier, shift the bar adds earlier — the lift moves with kickoff time.

  • UM home football vs Ohio State (3:30pm kickoff) (82% confidence, +28% impact)
• Sun May 3·Brunch concentration AM, PM slow
• Mon May 4·Rain 1mm — patio drag

  • Slow Monday — 12-week pattern (86% confidence, +0% impact)
• Tue May 5·+18% above 4-week Tuesday baseline; no driver in calendarVerify before staffing

  Tuesday's prediction is higher than usual — model expects $2,679 against a trailing-4-week Tuesday baseline of $2,271. That's a 18% lift with no weather or event driver in the calendar to explain it. Two possibilities: there's an event in the area the calendar's missing, or the Toast feed is double-counting something this week. Don't staff to the prediction until you've verified. If you spot the driver, add it to the events calendar so future Tuesdays catch it; if it's noise, the model will re-normalize next week. Recommendation: stay on the baseline schedule, watch lunch SPLH live, add a server only if traffic confirms by 1pm.

• Wed May 6·Chamber of Commerce dinner (6pm)

  Wednesday's a small event night — Chamber of Commerce dinner (6pm) on the admin calendar. Last two Chamber of runs lifted dinner cover counts ~12%. Add one server 5–9pm, about $58 in wages against an expected ~$420 in dinner revenue. Easy win, but watch the bar — Chamber-style crowds skew to lower-mix table beverages, so don't pre-staff the bar on this one. If the cover count's running ahead of pace by 7pm, you can pull a host from the door for the back room.

• ➕
  Add

  Fri May 1
  Bar

  6pm-9pm
  +3 hr

  +$48
  Pre-weekend pattern + clear evening; bar runs deep.
• ➕
  Add

  Sat May 2
  Server

  11am-3pm
  +8 hr

  +$112
  Two servers on patio for the 35% weather lift.
• ➕
  Add

  Sat May 2
  Server

  5pm-10pm
  +5 hr

  +$70
  Runner for dinner service post-game.
• ➕
  Add

  Sat May 2
  Bar

  4pm-close
  +6 hr

  +$96
  Home-game bar lift — historical +28% on home Saturdays.
• ✂
  Cut

  Sun May 3
  Line Cook

  3pm-6pm
  −3 hr

  −$45
  Brunch concentration AM; PM dinner runs light on Sundays.
• ✂
  Cut

  Mon May 4
  Dish

  11am-3pm
  −4 hr

  −$58
  Recurring SPLH pressure window — see weekly note below.
• ➕
  Add

  Wed May 6
  Server

  5pm-9pm
  +4 hr

  +$58
  Chamber-dinner cover lift; bar stays at baseline.

Monday lunch is bleeding. The last four Mondays in a row, SPLH dropped to $19–$21 between 1pm and 3pm — about 32% below the day's own average. Toast surfaces the symptom; we surface the cause: you're staffed for the volume you used to have, not the volume you have now. Cut four hours of dish coverage Mon–Wed afternoons (recommendation in the per-shift list above) — won't show up in guest experience, pulls Monday SPLH back above $24, and the model will re-check next week to confirm the fix held.